Diplomatic Plans Ready for Presented to Moscow Within Days, Says Ukraine's President
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist
After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.
Defense Assurances and International Support
“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Moscow's Stance and Land Issue
On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.
American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.
“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.
Next Steps and Possible Scenarios
It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.