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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.