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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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